US retail: May same-store sales --美国零售市场报告

ee+ff · 发表于 2006-6-19 13:09:54

US retailers reported mostly better-than-expected May same-store sales, driven by promotions. Telsey Advisory Group's Dana Telsey provides her analysis of the results, as well as the outlook for June.

May's overall same-store sales came in better than expected at 4.3% vs 3.1% last year, mainly driven by promotions. The May 2005 comparison of 3.1% was more challenging than the 2.2% of April 2005. May was a four-week retail month and typically comprises about 32% of second-quarter sales.

In general, May accounts for a greater percentage of second-quarter sales for the adult and off-price retailers than for the teen retailers. Despite the solid results in May, June is still the key month in the second quarter, encompassing five weeks and about 38% of Q2 sales.

May results were driven by the arrival of summer merchandise, Mother's Day and Memorial Day weekend, which is the kickoff of spring and early summer clearance in preparation for the arrival of back-to-school merchandise.

We also saw a build in customer traffic heading into Mother's Day, particularly at Ann Taylor, Bath & Body Works (a unit of Limited Brands Inc) and Banana Republic (a unit of Gap Inc). From a sales perspective, American Eagle Outfitters, Ann Taylor, Limited Brands Inc and Ross Stores came in better-than-expected, while Gap Inc, Hot Topic and Pacific Sunwear came in below plan.

Popular merchandise trends include leggings, Bermuda shorts, skinny bottoms and more voluminous tops.

Speciality apparel

The companies that exceeded May same-store sales expectations include:

American Eagle Outfitters – comped up 11%, versus a consensus estimate of 9.1%. Knit tops and shorts are a key driver and the tiered pricing strategy is quite effective.

Ann Taylor – comped up 12%, versus a consensus estimate of 6.1%. Both core Ann Taylor and Ann Taylor LOFT performed better than expected in May, with consistent strength across merchandise categories. We continue to expect positive results from both divisions, given the enhancement to the casual and career assortments.

Limited Brands Inc – comped up 7%, versus a consensus of 5.3%. Both Bath & Body Works and Victoria's Secret exceeded expectations, while Express came in below plan. Sales events occur in June at Limited Brands Inc, which could be a comp driver.

The companies that did not meet May same-store sales expectations include:

Gap Inc – comped (6%), versus a consensus estimate of (4%). Gap Inc continues to face challenging customer traffic patterns, especially at Old Navy, where some of the revamped merchandise is not generating higher traffic. The big news is yet to come at Gap brand, as the company prepares to introduce its revamped back-to-school (BTS) floor set in late July.

Hot Topic – comped (6%), versus a consensus estimate of (5.5%). Although comps were still negative, the sequential same-store sales trend improved in men's, women's, and accessories. We are awaiting the arrival of additional bottoms to drive the early back-to-school business in the second half of June. We were pleased to see continued improvement at Torrid, with solid performance in tops, dresses, jackets, and accessories.

Pacific Sunwear – comped (2.6%), versus a consensus estimate of 3.8%. At PacSun, the chain continues to experience weakness in its girls' sneakers, graphic tees, and denim. In the d.e.m.o. division, guys' shorts and woven classifications experienced weak sales. We will be looking for the introduction of the re-styled girls' denim line as well as new sneaker offerings in mid-June.

June 2006 preview

June is important as it is the most significant sales month of the second quarter and also marks the beginning of BTS floor sets. Comparisons become more difficult in the entire softlines sector, with the June 2005 comp of 5.3%. Note that teen retailers face the toughest comparison of 18.1% in June 2005.

Hardlines retailers

Despite our cautiously optimistic macro view, most of the hardlines retailers that reported Q1 sales and earnings results in the past few weeks described a slowdown in sales that began in April and continued into May.

Home Depot, Lowe's, Staples and Williams-Sonoma all commented on a slowdown in sales over the past six to eight weeks. With the exception of Staples and PetSmart, customer traffic seems to be the main culprit.

Dana Telsey is the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Research Officer of Telsey Advisory Group LLC (TAG).

Please register online at www.telseygroup.com to access the company's interactive calendar that provides scheduled earnings release dates, economic reporting, retail industry events and TAG presentations.

Please see www.telseygroup.com/disclosures.htm for important disclosures.

ee+ff · 发表于 2006-6-19 13:13:32

US shoppers have singled out Target, Whole Foods, Trader Joe's, Ikea, Apple, Urban Outfitters, Chico's and Nordstrom as their favourite retailers, according to consulting firm Retail Forward.

Summary

Consumer experience, marketing, products and brands and listening to shopper insights are four "key levers" of differentiation.

Target, Whole Foods, Trader Joe's, Ikea, Apple, Urban Outfitters, Chico's, and Nordstrom were singled out in a focus group for their excellent customer service, unique, well-designed product and emotional advertising.

Target won out in the general merchandising category for strong branding and unexpected advertising - like popup shops and an entire New Yorker magazine filled with red and white Target ads.

Trader Joe's and Whole Foods won in the food category. Whole Foods shoppers are happy to pay an extra dollar because they say they are also purchasing "a sense of well being."

Among the three retailers noted in the clothing category Urban Outfitters earned praise not just for its stores, but also for its sister brands: the Anthropologie chain and Free People clothing line.

Chico's multiple retail concepts – Soma (intimate apparel), White House|Black Market, and the acquisition of Fitigues – are helping the retailer to meet all of its customers need, including slightly trendier, more fitted apparel.

Nordstrom is best known for customer service and it's unique brands.

Ikea emerged as a leader in home goods. The retailer, who hopes to have 50 stores in US by 2010, talks about itself terms of vignette selling. Their in-store displays are inspiring to shoppers.

Although Apple moved into retailing just five years ago in 2001, they have 130 stores today. Shoppers appreciate the in-store product experts and the legion of hands on opportunities.

Retailers must continually keep in mind new ways of distinguishing themselves from their competitors, as older retail concepts lose their effectiveness and consumer expectations rise, according to Retail Forward. The consulting firm presented the research at its annual Strategic Outlook conference, held in New York on May 14.

Mary Brett Whitfield, senior vice president and director of Retail Forward Intelligence System, identified four "key levers" of differentiation:

consumer experience

marketing

products and brands

listening to shopper insights.

Their importance was borne out by a focus group conducted by Thomas Rubel, Retail Forward CEO and president.

The group included 85 people in three market segments who, over and over again, named the same retailers as their preferred shopping spots. Eight retailers won the attention of everyone from teens to middle-aged men for their excellent customer service, unique, well-designed product and emotional advertising.

"Most choice sets for consumers are only two or three stores deep. The choices are generally flexible and can be substituted. Some places, however, are irreplaceable," Rubel said.

Shoppers named Target, Whole Foods, Trader Joe's, Ikea, Apple, Urban Outfitters, Chico's and Nordstrom as stores they are not only loyal to, but for whom they act as ambassadors, recruiting friends and relatives.

"There were a smaller number of companies that consistently showed up, not only in every single market and in every single group, but with consistent consumer descriptions of the retailer," said Rubel.

Meanwhile, Whitfield discouraged retailers from focusing solely on profit margins and low costs to consumers, using the big box example of Wal-Mart vs Target as proof that elements like shopper experience carry more weight with customers than falling prices.

In Rubel's focus group, one thing participants rarely mentioned, despite the prevalence of value retailers among the top eight, was price.

Target

Target won out in the general merchandising category for "their strong branding, unexpected advertising - like popup shops and an entire New Yorker magazine filled with red and white Target ads," said Rubel.

"They are very focused on a specific customer group, which differs from Wal-Mart's, in that it's a consumer who appreciates great value, though not always at the lowest price," Rubel said. In video footage of the focus groups that Rubel shared, Target loyalists talked about one-stop shopping, fast fashion and proprietary brands.

"And they can list them," Rubel said, commenting on consumers' allegiance to Target's private labels and store exclusives.

Target's bubbly, often retro-inspired marketing programme resonates with shoppers, but it also gets them to the store because it generates fear. Teenagers, young career women and middle-aged suburban moms of varying economic backgrounds all expressed the anxiety of needing to buy now.

"Customers feel they have to buy product when they see it because of quick turnover," said Rubel. "But for a discount department store, the word `price' rarely came up in our discussion."

Trader Joe's

Trader Joe's was one of two winners in the food category.

"Consumers love how eclectic it is. They say it's educational and entertaining. They appreciate the vivacious staff and they like their Fearless Flyer catalogue," Rubel said.

One woman spoke about actually sitting down to read the catalogue although she throws out all other promotional mail.

Furthermore, Rubel added, consumers view Trader Joe's product as "high end at a discount."

Whole Foods

Equally a winner in food retailing, Whole Foods lured customers despite higher prices. Whole Foods shoppers are happy to pay an extra dollar because they say they are also purchasing "a sense of well being."

The concept of buying a feeling is essential, Rubel said, as store experience has little to do with product and more about "how customers feel about themselves" when they leave a store. A poor shopping experience doesn't just colour the shopper's opinion of the retailer, it affects the consumer's attitude towards themselves, leading overall to negative associations with the brand as a whole.

"Whole Foods has become more mainstream than a customer base of tree huggers," said Rubel. "Customers clearly understand what Whole Foods is trying to communicate: excitement about every day product through display and variety."

One man in the focus group noted that he takes his "kids there just to go look at the fish selection."

Urban Outfitters

Among the three retailers noted in the clothing category Urban Outfitters earned praise not just for its stores, but also for its sister brands: the Anthropologie chain and Free People clothing line.

Rubel recounted a telling line from Urban Outfitters CEO Richard Hayne on his vision of shopping the store: "Merchandise is just a souvenir of the experience."

Consumers loved the store's "eclectic assortment" and the fact that it's "always changing."

Urban Outfitters and Anthropologie are both known for creative merchandising that mixes housewares with lingerie and soaps with stickers and games. Rubel said the stores earned high marks "for being a fast follower of fashion and for their compelling store environment."

One girl said she loved shopping at Anthropologie because she "gets stuff that no one else would have." Despite the fact that they're from a chain store, the shopper said, the pieces she buys at Anthropologie feel unique to her.

Chico's

"How does Chico's continue to do so well?" Rubel asked.

Taken at face value, the mainstream retailer of clothing for women over 35 hardly seems like the description of a trailblazer. But Chico's knows its market and despite recent disappointing sales results – and subsequent falling stock – Rubel insists that the news is all "overreaction" and that Chico's is "clearly are doing well and will continue to do so."

Chico's multiple retail concepts – Soma (intimate apparel), White House|Black Market, and the acquisition of Fitigues – are helping the retailer to meet all of its customers need, including slightly trendier, more fitted apparel.

Customers also love Chico's loyalty programme, catalogue and coupons – all of which reward dedicated shoppers with even more opportunities to shop.

Women across the board expressed fear of missing out on offers for discounts or sales. One shopper said when she receives her coupon for $50 off: "I know I have to spend a $100 to get it, but if I don't I feel like I just wasted money."

The women also noted the personal attention they receive at Chico's as a major draw.

"I love it," said one woman. "They'll put the whole outfit together for you. I come in for the pants and they give me the shirt, the blazer, the hat and the jewellery, so I don't even have to think about it."

Nordstrom

"Nordstrom is legendary for its customer service," said Rubel. "It's known for its in-store ambiance: the live piano playing and the day spas."

Shoppers mentioned the store's unique brands – many of which are private label – and the fact that Nordstrom has made an effort to earn their trust. One shopper remembered that she received a thank you note for her purchases. "That really was a thoughtful touch," she said.

Ikea

Along with Apple, Ikea emerged as a leader in home goods. The retailer, who hopes to have 50 stores in US by 2010, talks about itself terms of vignette selling. Indeed, their in-store displays are inspiring to shoppers.

"Ikea made me want to move into a 700 sq ft apartment," said one woman who lives in a multi-storey house.

Other shoppers said they appreciated the price and look of Ikea's designs, and that these two factors were enough to merit five-hour round trip drives to the nearest store. Likewise, the fact that most pieces require assembly was not a deterrent given price and style.

The in-store experience has earned the store "cult status" among some shoppers, said Rubel, for special features like the children's playroom and restaurants.

Apple

Although Apple moved into retailing just five years ago in 2001, they have 130 stores today. "They said, 'Let's show retailers how to romance the brand'" said Rubel, commenting on Apple's transition to stores.

Shoppers appreciate the in-store product experts and the legion of hands-on opportunities. A mother who had recently shopped for an iPod like the fact that she could hear how different speakers would sound because they were playing on the selling floor, and that a sales representative spent an hour with her explaining different features and discussing her son's listening needs.

"It was good service for a product they don't even need to do it for. iPod's would fly off the shelves on their own," she said.

Ease of use and after-sale service were also strong pulls. A young male said he "loved the Genius Bar" – Apple's in-store problem solvers for products. "It's great because they really are geniuses," he said.